【關鍵詞】 潛在增長 效率 平穩減速 結構調整 Potential Growth Efficiency Stabilized Slowdown Structural Adjustment

　　【摘 要】 本文研究中國將要經歷的增長階段轉換問題，主要結論是：(1)高投資和出口驅動的經濟增長階段Ⅰ，已逐步失去經由干預提升效率的動力，以結構調整促進效率提高的增長階段行將結束，城市化和服務業的發展將開啟經濟穩速增長階段Ⅱ，效率提高促進結構優化是本階段的主要特征；(2)促使增長階段Ⅰ向增長階段Ⅱ轉型的三大主導因素是：人口結構變化和勞動力拐點的出現，長期增長函數要素彈性參數逆轉以及經濟結構服務化趨勢的逐步形成；(3)東部發達省市如北京、上海等已經進入經濟減速通道，2016年后，隨著全國城市化率的不斷提高、結構服務化加快、人口紅利的下降，如果勞動生產率不能持續提高，中國經濟減速勢成必然。 This study probes into the switch of growth stages China is going to experience, with main conclusions as follows: (1)growth stage Ⅰ,driven by high investment and industrialization, is gradually losing its power of efficiency-enhancing through intervening, and the stage of structural adjustment to improve efficiency is now coming to an end, and meanwhile, growth stage Ⅱ is being initiated by the development of urbanization and service industry, of which the main characteristics is structural improvement through efficiency-enhancing; (2)three main factors brings about the switch from growth stage Ⅰ to stage Ⅱ, viz., the arrival of turning points of demographic structure and labor supply, the sharp changes in output elasticities of production factors along the long-run growth path, and the emerge of the dominance of service industry in the economic structure; (3)rich eastern cities and provinces like Beijing and Shanghai has entered the slowdown growth path, and it is rather certain that in 2016 China's economy will slow down during the speeding urbanization process.

全文附件：
中國經濟長期增長路徑、效率與潛在增長水平.pdf

本文來源：《經濟研究》  作者：中國社會科學院中國經濟增長前沿課題組